PREVIEW
The country’s shrewdest political strategist has to contend with multiple schisms in the 36 states
On most measures, President Bola Tinubu has emphatically improved the position of the ruling All Progressives Congress in Nigeria – despite the unpopularity of many of its economic policies. It controls two-thirds of the state parliaments in the 36-state federation, and it has boosted its numbers in the National Assembly to give it a comfortable majority in both the House of Representatives and the Senate (AC Vol 66 No 9, Tinubu exudes confidence as opposition starts to fold).
Much of this is down to the Tinubu method: relentlessly wooing opposition politicians from the critical swing states. Sometimes he gets politicians such as Delta State Governor Sheriff Oborevwori to defect, along with their allies in the state assembly, to the ruling APC. That delivers the state, and its election financing capacity to Tinubu and the APC – in return for a political promise.
In other cases, Tinubu recruits an outgoing governor, such as Rivers State Governor Nyesom Wike to stay in the opposition People’s Democratic Party to instigate division and confusion. So effective was Wike in persuading voters in Rivers, against all historical trends, to back Tinubu and the APC that he was given the prime patronage portfolio of Minister of the Federal Capital Territory in the Federal Government after the February 2023 elections.
Thanks to Wike causing chaos in the PDP, the party that once boasted of being the biggest political party in Africa, has almost imploded. Its lead financier and former presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar has quit and transferred his money and ambition to the new opposition alliance, the African Democratic Congress (ADC).
There he was joined by Peter Obi, presidential candidate of the Labour party, which has also been hit by saboteurs that party loyalists claim were backed by Tinubu adherents. Other politicians to have fallen foul of Tinubu – such as ex-Senate President David Mark, ex-Transport Minister Rotimi Amaechi and ex-governor of Kaduna State Nasir el-Rufai – are also circling the ADC, mulling a run for the presidency in 2027.
So effective has this campaign against opposition leaders proved to be that most of them have crowded into a political vehicle determined to oppose Tinubu (AC Vol 66 No 10, Tinubu’s tax revolution tightens his grip). The other side of the story is that the ruling APC is struggling to accommodate waves of defectors from the opposition who are demanding jobs and privileges for switching allegiance.
In some states and local government areas, this is proving highly disruptive. So serious are some of these disputes that they could derail what was looking like a clear run for Tinubu in the presidential elections in 2027. Much of this may be positioning ahead of the primary elections in the states which are due to be held early next year.
On the regional rotation principle, between north and south in Nigeria, southern governors, regardless of party, are calling for a southern presidential candidate in 2027. And the ruling APC controls 14 out of the 17 states in southern Nigeria.
Tinubu, the godfather of the commercial capital Lagos, in the south-west, is the pre-eminent southern candidate. His backers in the APC handed him the presidential nomination without the fuss of a primary election. Rivals to Tinubu, especially in the northern states, calculated that it was not the time for a direct challenge.
States in the north-east and north-west of Nigeria are Tinubu’s biggest headaches. He may not be able to win a majority in most of the northern states, but he must win a geographical spread of votes: that is at least 25% of the votes in two thirds of the 36 states.
Along with his strong base in the south, Tinubu is determined to boost his standing in the north. And his backers have been trying relentlessly to harvest at least some of the 10 million votes that helped elect the previous APC leader Muhammadu Buhari who died on 13 July (AC Vol 66 No 15, Buhari’s legacy and opposition alliance slow Tinubu’s bandwagon).
Tinubu’s campaign team is convinced that the combination of Buhari’s APC legacy vote and the party’s growing support in the ethnically and religiously diverse north-central states should carry their man over the line in 2027.
But they must also manage the serial personal rivalries and turf-fights in seven key states. Should these go badly for the APC it would open the election to the opposition ADC or another formation that could unite around a credible candidate. For now, these are the most troublesome states for Tinubu.
DELTA STATE
The oil-rich Delta State shows the fluidity of national politics. Since 1999, the state has been held by the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and funded its presidential campaigns.
The state receives the highest federal allocation and oil revenues in the country. Last year, it got N485 billion (US$130m) as federal allocation and then generated another N158bn through taxes, making it the third wealthiest state in the country behind Lagos and Rivers.
In 2023, the PDP’s presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar nominated then Delta Governor Ifeanyi Okowa as his running mate because of the state’s political weight and financial muscle.
When Tinubu took office, his administration began investigating Delta State’s finances. The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission called Okowa for questioning amid reports that $1bn was unaccounted for.
Amid the probe, Okowa along with his successor, Governor Sheriff Oborevwori and all other elected officials in the state defected to the APC, endorsing Tinubu for re-election, undermining a key opposition base. But it has also caused ructions in the ruling party in the state.
Political tradition states that whenever a governor defects to a new party, he automatically becomes the leader: so Governor Oborevwori now leads the APC in Delta. That frustrates longer established members of the APC led by former Deputy Senate President Ovie Omo-Agege who have now been relegated. They are now talking-to the opposition ADC alliance and could soon defect. Delta State had over 3.2m registered voters in the last election likely to rise to 4m in 2027.
ADAMAWA STATE
With just 2.1m voters, Adamawa state’s political weight is symbolic rather than strategic. Last year, it received N140bn from the federal account and generated N127bn in taxes, making it one of the poorest states. But it is the home turf of former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar. He won the presidential vote in Adamawa on the PDP ticket in the last two elections. Atiku has quit the PDP and has quarrelled with Adamawa’s PDP governor Ahmadu Fintiri. Exacerbating the rift, Fintiri’s opponent in the last election, Aisha Binani, has joined Atiku in the ADC. Binani wants to become the first female governor in Nigeria. She lost the election by a tiny margin in 2023.
Because the Tinubu administration wants to disgrace Atiku at the polls, it will pay special attention to Adamawa State. National Security Advisor, Nuhu Ribadu, is from the state and has his own presidential ambitions in 2031. Delivering Adamawa State to Tinubu would greatly boost Ribadu in the political rankings.
RIVERS STATE
Nigeria’s second wealthiest state was a PDP stronghold until 2023 but its politics are now in disarray. Tinubu suspended Governor Siminalayi Fubara and all elected officials in the state, imposing a state of emergency after a power struggle erupted between them and former governor Nyesome Wike, now a federal minister in Abuja (AC Vol 66 No 7, Tinubu bets the farm on Rivers State).
A shaky reconciliation deal brokered by Tinubu reasserted Wike’s political leadership in the state, rendering Governor Fubara a lame duck. Both men have pledged to support President Tinubu at the next election but the key question of the APC’s gubernatorial candidate in 2027 has been left open. Rotimi Amaechi, a former governor and ex-transport minister who has joined the opposition ADC, is pushing a candidate who can exploit the grassroots dissatisfaction with all three protagonists, Fubara, Wike and Tinubu. Rivers State revenue for last year was some N811bn, mostly from federal and oil income (N462bn) and state taxes (N348.1bn). It got over N100bn from other sources such as grants. It is the second wealthiest state after Lagos. With over 3.5m registered voters, it is the fourth biggest state electorate.
LAGOS STATE
Nigeria’s commercial capital is Tinubu’s home state and has over 7m registered voters – the highest in the country – but it has the lowest voter turnout in percentage terms. It generated about N1.3 trillion (US$844m) in taxes last year and received over N321bn from the federal purse, bringing its revenue to over N1.62tn last year. A national melting pot, Lagos has the most diverse voting patterns. In 2023, Peter Obi, of Igbo ethnicity, defeated President Tinubu, a Yoruba, on his home turf.
Local government officials loyal to Tinubu have run a xenophobic campaign: trying to erase traces of Igbo heritage, changing streets with Igbo names and trying to suppress voting in areas with high numbers of Igbos.
Have reasserted the APC’s grip on the state, Tinubu wants to win it by a landslide in 2027 but he has quarrelled with the outgoing governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu and has kept his preferred gubernatorial candidate of 2027 under wraps. Countering speculation that Tinubu may back his son Seyi as the APC candidate, insiders say he resents any idea that he is starting a dynasty. His wife is a long-standing senator.
OYO STATE
In south-west Nigeria, Oyo state has four political divisions – Ibadan (the capital), Oyo, Oke Ogun and Ogbomosho. Ibadan usually produces the governor due to its voting population and historic significance. But the other divisions want a turn. Governor…
