South African politics have entered a new phase. For the first time since the end of apartheid, the ruling African National Congress vote in municipal elections last month dropped below 50 per cent — a disastrous outcome for the party of Nelson Mandela and an indictment of its performance. Not before time, the ANC’s political monopoly is faltering.
True, these were only local elections. For now, the ANC continues to govern the country, though the word “govern” is perhaps too generous for a party that struggles to keep the lights on or curb rampant corruption.
At municipal level, several of the main cities, including all three in the industrial heartland of Gauteng — Johannesburg, Tshwane (Pretoria) and Ekurhuleni — have fallen to the opposition. The Democratic Alliance, a liberal centrist party that officially backs a social market economy, will run those cities along with Cape Town. It narrowly failed to take Durban.
In truth, the ANC has been floundering for years. Even under the relatively stable governments of Mandela and Thabo Mbeki, it failed to tackle the structural injustices bequeathed by apartheid. Inequality as measured by the Gini coefficient is as bad as when black people were deliberately held back by racist laws. Attempts at black empowerment created a small elite, but millions have had to settle for government handouts. Jobs are scarce and schools fail to prepare most children for what few opportunities exist.
Under Jacob Zuma, president for nearly 10 years until 2018, things got worse. His cronies ransacked the coffers and hollowed out institutions. Growth slowed to a crawl. Cyril Ramaphosa, Zuma’s successor, has tried to reverse the rot. But progress is glacial. Voters have given him a yellow card.
Thoughts are now turning to the 2024 general election when the ANC may again fail to win outright. It could possibly stagger on by cobbling together a coalition. But the political discourse has turned to what a post-ANC future might look like.
Unfortunately for South Africa, the opposition is as divided and seemingly lacking in coherent ideas as the ruling party. Despite its apparent success in local elections, the DA has been a shambles, riven by internal struggles often centred on race. It now has a white leader and has drifted to the right in pursuit of the Afrikaner vote, electoral self-harm in a country with an 80 per cent black majority.
To the ANC’s left is the Economic Freedom Fighters, led by the firebrand Julius Malema, who cites Hugo Chávez among his role models. If Malema somehow took the presidency, the country’s prospects would dim further.
Another rising force is Herman Mashaba’s ActionSA. A successful black businessman and former mayor of Johannesburg, Mashaba champions free markets with an emphasis on service provision but takes a hard line on immigration. A potential kingmaker, he could plausibly emerge as a presidential contender himself.
Out of this mess, South Africa needs to conjure a political force capable of performing a near-miracle. The country needs radical solutions to gaping inequalities, yet ones that do not frighten business. Its problems cannot be addressed with an economy shrinking in per capita terms. It desperately needs private-sector led growth.
“What is unfolding is how democracy works,” Ramaphosa said of the electorate’s stinging verdict. That is true. More dubious is his assertion that the ANC is a party that “learns very quickly”. History would suggest otherwise. We are not in a post-ANC era yet. But that time is approaching.
