Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes expected during the lean season in drought and conflict-affected areas
Key Messages
Owing to the favorable 2021 harvest, households in most parts of the region are still consuming own produced staple and continue to experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. Although, in deficit-producing areas of southern Zimbabwe, Lesotho, and Malawi, households are experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes as the lean season has already begun. In drought-affected southern Madagascar, most poor households rely heavily on food assistance and Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) outcomes are ongoing. Across the region, these outcomes are expected to continue until the 2022 harvest begins in April as households start consuming own-produced foods.
Conflict in Mozambique and DRC continues to disrupt livelihood activities and displacement, leading to the loss of typical food and income sources. Households affected by conflict continue to experience Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes as they have little food stocks and low purchasing power. IOM estimates that around 642,000 IDPs in Cabo Delgado are living among host communities or in resettlement areas with little to no access to typical livelihood activities. According to OCHA, in DRC, over 59,000 people are newly displaced, and since October, nearly 135,000 people have returned to their areas of residence in conflict zones of the northeast and center-east. In both countries, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) are expected to continue through May as the agricultural activities are expected to be limited due to insecurity.
The forecast for 2021/22 rainfall is average to above average. The expected favorable seasonal rainfall will mark the second consecutive good season across much of the region. This is likely to facilitate engagement in agricultural activities. Increased availability of agricultural opportunities will likely help support household income for many poor households.
Staple prices are showing mixed trends across the region. In Zimbabwe, a combination of reduced market supply in southern deficit-producing areas and high national inflation are contributing to increases in staple food prices. Markets in southern Madagascar are also expecting above-average staple prices as market supplies are very low due to the impacts of last year’s drought. In Malawi, maize price increases were recorded in half of the monitored markets between August and September; prices remained stable in the rest. Across all markets, prices are expected to remain near the five-year average. In Mozambique, maize grain prices in September were up to 30 percent lower than the same time last year and close to the five-year average due to stable market supply.
OUTLOOK BY COUNTRY
***Democratic Republic of the Congo ***
- Agriculture Season A has started in the north-east and central-eastern areas of the country in a context of persisting insecurity. Based on the NMME and SARCOF forecast models, below-average precipitation is expected in most regions for the period from October to December. These forecasts indicate near-average agricultural activities, with a probability of having lower harvests than previous agricultural seasons.
- Displacement of populations in conflict zones in the north-east and center-east continues to affect people’s access to their typical livelihood assets. According to OCHA, In October 2021, the country registered 59,033 newly displaced people and 134,243 returnees. These households, which in most cases do not participate in ongoing agricultural activities, will face food consumption deficits.
- Faced with an early onset to the lean season, household food security in the east of the country will remain a concern. In some areas worst affected by conflict, households will experience food consumption deficits and will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). On the other hand, other areas of the center-east and south-east, with minimally adequate consumption during the lean season, will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes.
Madagascar
- Large-scale humanitarian assistance has been ongoing in southern Madagascar in mid- and late 2021, and available information suggest assistance will continue throughout the 2021/22 lean season. While Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes were initially anticipated in the absence of assistance, the large-scale and widespread delivery of food assistance is supporting improvement to Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) outcomes. Available information on food security outcomes collected in late 2021 suggests that food assistance is mitigating worse outcomes across much of southern Madagascar. Despite area-level Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) outcomes, data also point to the likelihood that there remain households in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) even in the presence of assistance. The highest populations in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) are likely in Ampanihy and Tsihombe districts.
- Forecasts indicate that October 2021 to May 2022 rainfall is likely to be average across the country. Despite forecast average rainfall, poor households in southern Madagascar continue to face difficulty accessing seeds and other necessary inputs due to very high costs. As a result, production across the south is expected to remain in line with levels that are well below the long-term average. Continued poor production across southern Madagascar will lead to staple food prices that continue to be above average. Food security is still expected to improve in mid-2022 with increased food available from the harvest, but assistance needs will remain higher than is typical for the harvesting period.
Malawi
- In large part due to above-average 2020/21 crop production, most rural poor households have adequate access to food and income and are not facing acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 1). Most of the country is likely to remain in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) throughout the projection period. However, poor households in Nsanje and Chikwawa districts of the Lower Shire livelihood zone will deteriorate to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) around November/December due to below-normal production. While it was previously thought Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes would prevail in Chikwawa through October 2021, updated analysis indicate a transition to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) starting in November. Poor households who faced income losses associated with the pandemic are recovering and will be in None (IPC Phase 1), though some worst affected households in urban centers will experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes.
- Since September 2021, the retail prices of maize have trended below last year and the five-year average. While maize price increases were recorded in half of the monitored markets between August and September, prices remained stable in the other half. Prices are also below the government-set minimum farmgate price of 150 MWK/kg and far below the newly set retail price by the government owned Agriculture Development and Marketing Cooperation (ADMARC) of 205 MWK/kg. Based on FEWS NET’s integrated price projections, maize prices are likely to remain average to below average throughout the projection period, despite seasonal increases.
- Forecast models indicate La Niña conditions are likely during the outlook period, driving average rainfall with the possibility of above-average rainfall. This forecast coupled with good access to fertilizers and seeds for subsistence farmers through the government’s Affordable Inputs Program (AIP) suggest a third consecutive above-average agricultural production year is likely in 2021/22.
Mozambique
- Most households in rural areas face None (IPC Phase 1) or Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity outcomes as the lean season starts, supported by their food stocks and food purchases in local markets. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes persist in areas that have been impacted by natural disasters over the last three years, but outcomes are expected to improve in April 2022 supported by a forecast average rainy season and harvest. In Cabo Delgado, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes persist in conflict-affected areas where the IOM estimates that around 642,000 IDPs in Cabo Delgado are living with host families or resettlement areas with little to no access to their basic livelihood activities. In urban and peri-urban areas, most poor households are likely Stressed (IPC Phase 2) as COVID-19 control measures and below-average economic activity impacts household purchasing power, with the most vulnerable households likely in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).
- In Cabo Delgado, there are reports of some IDPs returning to their areas of origin to assess livelihood opportunities (agriculture, fishing, trade), the impact of the conflict on their properties, and the possibility of returning with their families. However, most IDPs are expected to remain in conflict-free areas of Cabo Delgado through the 2021/2022 rainy season due to security concerns. In late October, the government began distributing seeds and other agricultural inputs to IDPs to increase agricultural production and reduce food insecurity concerns. However, humanitarian food assistance needs will likely remain high until at least the harvest in May 2022. The World Food Programme (WFP) is anticipating more than 930,000 IDPs and host families in Cabo Delgado, Niassa, and Nampula to likely require HFA through May 2022. However, due to limited resources, WFP plans to continue providing half monthly rations equivalent to 39 percent of daily kcals until January 2022. WFP plans to resume full distribution following the results of an ongoing vulnerability-based targeting exercise. Other humanitarian organizations are likely to provide food assistance to accessible areas in coordination with district authorities.
- The forecast average rainy season is likely to support average crop production for the 2021/2022 agricultural season across most of Mozambique. However, there is a moderate to high-risk probability of flooding, which could lead to crop loss in…
